We cannot, in good conscience, state at the beginning of
1995 what technology will exist or be needed by UF in 1999.
That is a prime example of the moving target that is embodied
by our modern technology. The best we can do from this vantage
point is to recommend practices that will help UF keep abreast
of whatever technologies come along, will help UF position
itself to take advantage of emerging technologies that CAN be
forecast, and which will assist UF in implementing those
technologies in ways that support the educational, research,
and service missions of the University. To these ends, we make
three recommendations.
Recommendation FT1: OITS should assess, with broad user
input, what applications users need now and applications they
can predict they will need in future years. The results of
this study can then be used by campus technical personnel to
assess which technologies might be needed to support those
applications.
Recommendation FT2: User needs and network plans need to be
reviewed at least annually by CITS and analyzed in view of the
known needs and possibilities. It is recommended that CITS
keep in touch with the user community as user application
needs become apparent and network resources become available.
Recommendation FT3: Network Services should develop
procedures for keeping abreast of Wide-Area Networking (WAN)
trends as they relate to long-distance carriers, to cultivate
beneficial relationships with the carriers, and to provide a
campus-wide clearing house for WAN-related activities.
We once again refer to the excellent work done by the NTSC.
Its December 6, 1994, "Report on Future Trends in
Networking Technology," can be found in Appendix 7. For a
more detailed discussion of the issues and specific
recommendations related to WAN services, see the October 3,
1994, report from the WAN Workgroup in Appendix 8.
The NTSC report looks at the advantages and disadvantages
of currently known future technological networking trends in
three main areas: mobile communications, client/server
computing, and multi-media services. These include specific
technological options such as Speeding up Existing
Technologies, Switching Hubs, ISDN, ATM, different cabling
media (unshielded twisted pair, single- and multi-mode fiber,
and coax), and Wireless communications. A review of these
summaries should serve as the starting point for analysis of
future technologies for campus.
We quote three sections of the NTSC December 6, 1994,
report as supportive of the spirit of these recommendations:
"2. Future of This Report -- As part of the annual
review process, NTSC should review the 'Future Trends'
document from the previous year early in the Spring. This
would allow Network Services and other campus organizations
involved in networking to incorporate any recommendations into
their budget request for the coming year. However, no emerging
network technologies will be a factor at UF until a consistent
and adequate funding base can be established for maintenance
and growth of this mission-critical resource."
"3. Introduction -- Networking technology is changing
rapidly in almost all areas. Decisions about which of the
emerging technologies will ultimately prove useful in the UF
environment, let alone hold enough market share to be
well-supported and economically feasible cannot be made at
this time. Historically, UF has made technological advances in
information technologies either through close vendor
relationships or by waiting until commodity level pricing was
reached. Many of the problems of being at the cutting edge of
technology are eliminated as a result. In this report, we will
evaluate the various technologies on the horizon with an eye
for how they might impact UF. There are three general
directions that we are watching: Mobile computing,
client-server computing, and multi-media applications. Some
applications, like Mosaic, combine two or more of these modes.
Client-server and multi-media both tax the available
bandwidth of the wired network. Some forms of multi-media like
interactive video require low-latency to be effective. There
are various ways available now and coming available to handle
the bandwidth problems. Whenever we are dealing with new
technology, we should follow standards which come from an open
discussion whether that be the Internet RFC process, the IEEE,
the ISO, or NIST."
"5. Conclusions -- It is very difficult to guess how
many people will drive across a bridge by observing how many
swim the river. In order to make any reasonable projections of
needs and appropriate technologies, the user population must
be surveyed. This includes the faculty, administration, staff,
and students, who should be asked about both desired uses
(teaching, research, service, management, work at home, etc.)
and requirements (speed, distance, reliability, delay, costs,
etc). Until this survey is made, it will be difficult to
determine the impact or the value of deployment of emerging
and often-expensive technologies."
